#192 crystal balls

It was ironic that yesterday's blog was about surprise.  I think most people where I live woke up to a surprise yesterday -- a couple inches of the first snow.  The morning paper read:  "little or new accumulation here."  The day before they predicted "snow flurries" for today.  They were wrong.

I wonder if the meteorologists woke up to a surprise too.  Did they go to bed thinking there would only be a dusting and wake up with a gasp as I did upon seeing the winter wonderland?  Think of how many times the actual weather wasn't what you were expecting; does the same happen to them?  Do they keep a secret tally of how many forecasts they got right and how many times they missed?

We spend a lot of time and energy on weather forecasts and in the end we always get what Mother Nature wants instead of what the meteorologists predict.  Some of us also spend a lot of time on sales forecasting, stock market predictions, construction time/cost estimations and the like.  For any activity that involves gazing into that proverbial crystal ball, know that the images there are fuzzy.  Don't have a false sense of security or certainty based upon a prediction.  Remain flexible enough to handle things when reality and guessing don't match.

-- beth triplett
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