#73 step two

We just finished a week of open houses for prospective students.  During one of the lunches, I sat with a prospective student and her father, and the conversation inevitably turned to the lack of rain.  Iowa is experiencing a serious drought, so weather is the topic du jour. This dad raises cattle so the impact of drought hits him sooner than it does me.  He spoke of how he has had to feed the herd hay for several months already, when he usually doesn't start inside feeding until October.  He shared that a friend, who usually sells hay for $30, turned down an offer of $200 because he didn't think it was enough.  It was a grim picture.

Then some of us speculated that the cost of beef was really going to rise.  We were surprised when he said "next year it will, but first it will get cheaper."  Huh?  The reason is that he expects many farmers to off-load their cattle early, before they have to continue indoor feeding all winter at the high hay prices, and thus supply will first increase (and thus prices will decrease) before the reverse happens.

Without intending to do so, our lunch conversation turned into a real world example of system thinking.  Wise is the leader who doesn't stop at the first conclusion, but thinks further ahead to the implications of that decision on the next one.  If you only pay attention to the initial cheap beef, you fail to plan for the expense/scarcity that is to come.  You'll be much better off if you take that extra time to think one step beyond your next action.

-- beth triplett
leadershipdots.blogspot.com
@leadershipdots
leadershipdots@gmail.com

p.s.  If you need an exercise to see system thinking in action, Peter Senge's Fifth Discipline has a great one in his beer game simulation.